The 4680 cylindrical battery has obvious advantages and is expected to become the mainstream choice for mid-to-high-end vehicle models. The output of Tesla 4680 battery has exceeded 100MWh in February 2022. Through optimization and innovation in battery design, positive and negative materials, production process and system integration, the weakness of lithium power batteries will be solved:
High-cost weakness: the cost will be reduced by 56%;
Short driving distance weakness: the energy density is increased to 300Wh/kg, and the driving distance can reach 750km;
Slow charging weakness: the maximum charging current can reach 6C. 70% of the vehicles can be charged in 15 minutes;
Hazardous thermal diffusion safety weakness: The circular design reduces the probability of thermal diffusion between cells.
The 4680 battery has obvious advantages. Although the current midstream and upstream industrialization cycle is long, the production capacity release is slow, and the scale effect has not yet formed, but it is predicted that the 4680 cylindrical battery will become the mainstream choice for mid-to-high-end model batteries after 2025. The upgrade of power battery materials and structure design has become an effective way to eliminate the competitiveness disadvantage of new energy vehicles.
Tesla took the lead in deploying 4680 cylindrical batteries, boosting sales and leading the technical direction of the industry. With the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the continuous improvement of Tesla's product power, Tesla is expected to sell 3.8 million vehicles in 2025. It is expected that 60% of models will be equipped with 4680 cylindrical batteries, and the demand for 4680 cylindrical batteries will reach 236GWh. At present, the mainstream battery companies CATL, EVE, Panasonic and LG have accelerated the layout of 4680 cylindrical battery.
Battery companies continue to improve the product upgrade of power batteries through the iteration of battery raw materials and structural innovation. For example, the nickel ingredient in the cathode raw materials is continuously increased to improve the driving distance. In 2018, medium-nickel ternary batteries with a range of about 300km occupy the domestic mainstream battery market, and in 2021, the use of high-nickel ternary batteries will make the range exceed 700km. The battery system improves the volume utilization rate by optimizing the structural design. The system volume utilization rate of the earliest widely used VDA355 module is only 45%, and the current large-scale CTP volume utilization rate is 60%.